Emerging risks could submerge global growth

Summary

In our April International Economic Outlook, we highlighted how China’s commitment to its “Zero-COVID policy is a key theme as well as a major risk to the 2022 global economic outlook. Lockdowns, in our view, make China’s official GDP target of 5.5% unreachable, and we forecast China’s economy to grow 4.5% this year. However, risks around that forecast are tilted to the downside, which in turn, tilts global growth prospects to the downside as well. Given China’s stature within the global economy, negative local developments tend to cause¬†ripple¬†effects across the emerging markets. In this report, we update our China Sensitivity Analysis and determine that most of the larger and systemically important emerging economies are sensitive to developments in China. Should China’s economy decelerate more than we currently forecast and contagion risks materialize the way our framework suggests, this year could mark the slowest pace of global expansion since the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis in 2009.